Commodity currencies climbed in the first full trading week of 2026 as traders increased bets on a Federal Reserve policy pivot and priced in potential Chinese economic stimulus, driving demand for currencies tied to global growth and raw material exports.
The Australian dollar and Canadian dollar led gains among major currencies, reaching their strongest levels in weeks against the U.S. dollar. Market analysts note that Fed commentary from the December meeting has convinced investors the central bank has concluded its hiking cycle, with attention now focused on the timing of potential rate reductions. Chinese policymakers' recent signals about supporting the housing market and accelerating infrastructure projects have further boosted sentiment toward commodity-linked assets.
"The narrative has shifted dramatically from last quarter," said a senior foreign-exchange strategist at a global bank in London. "Markets are no longer asking if the Fed will cut, but when." The rally reflects broad-based dollar weakness as traders unwind bullish positions built during the fourth quarter. The euro and British pound have also gained ground, though analysts say those moves stem primarily from dollar softness rather than domestic strength. Positioning surveys show speculative accounts have trimmed dollar longs to their lowest level in months, suggesting the trend may have room to run.
Technical indicators point to accelerating momentum in several commodity currency pairs, with moving averages aligning in bullish formations. The moves come despite volatile trading in crude oil and industrial metals, indicating currency markets are responding more to monetary policy expectations than underlying commodity fundamentals. Upcoming catalysts include speeches from three Fed regional presidents this week and Chinese inflation data scheduled for release Friday. Currency traders warn that any hawkish surprises from Fed officials or weaker-than-expected Chinese economic indicators could quickly reverse the current trend.
Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated for educational purposes. Traders should verify all information and conduct their own research before making trading decisions.