The dollar weakened across the board in light post-holiday trading, capping a turbulent November marked by evolving central bank expectations and portfolio rebalancing. Market participants noted that thin liquidity following the Thanksgiving break exaggerated moves as institutional investors adjusted positions heading into December's critical policy meetings.
Euro Strength Builds on ECB Policy Divergence
The euro gained ground against the greenback, trading near its strongest levels in over a month as traders priced in a more hawkish European Central Bank trajectory. Market analysts point to resilient eurozone inflation data and ECB officials' recent commentary as fueling expectations that the central bank will maintain its restrictive stance longer than previously anticipated. "The ECB appears less inclined to pivot compared to the Fed," said senior currency strategists at major banks, noting that this policy gap continues to drive capital flows toward the single currency. Technical momentum indicators suggest the pair is testing a key resistance zone that, if breached, could accelerate the move higher.
Pound and Yen Capitalize on Dollar Fragility
Meanwhile, sterling demonstrated resilience despite mixed UK economic signals, with traders focusing on potential fiscal policy adjustments in the upcoming budget cycle. The pound's ability to hold recent gains reflects market confidence that the Bank of England will proceed cautiously on rate cuts. In contrast, the Japanese yen strengthened materially as Bank of Japan normalization bets intensified. Market participants increasingly expect the BoJ to provide clearer guidance on ending negative interest rates at its December gathering, with recent wage growth data supporting the case for policy tightening. This dynamic has compressed USD/JPY, with momentum indicators showing the pair breaking below key support levels that had held for several weeks.
Commodities and Digital Assets Rally
Gold prices advanced for a fourth consecutive session, buoyed by dollar weakness and persistent geopolitical tensions that revived safe-haven demand. Bullion traders noted that institutional investors have resumed building long positions after a period of profit-taking earlier in the month. Oil markets exhibited heightened volatility as supply concerns from ongoing Middle East developments collided with demand uncertainty from China's economic data. Bitcoin and broader crypto assets continued their November rally, with market participants citing growing institutional adoption and expectations for favorable regulatory clarity in 2026. Technical charts show the digital asset testing a major psychological resistance barrier that could trigger accelerated buying if overcome.
Looking ahead, traders are positioning for a pivotal first week of December featuring multiple central bank decisions and key employment data. Market analysts caution that current trends may face reversals if policymakers deliver surprises, though the consensus suggests the dollar's path of least resistance remains lower in the near term. Positioning data indicates hedge funds have maintained bearish dollar exposure, with any signs of Fed dovishness likely to amplify the current trajectory.
Disclaimer: This analysis is AI-generated for educational purposes. Traders should verify all information and conduct their own research before making trading decisions.